Old Unopened Topps Packs (Wax, Cello and Rack)

Pricing of Unopened Items

Unopened Pack Enthusiast — Fri, 09 Mar 2007 15:55:00 GMT

As at least a few of you know, I have been keeping a database of pack prices for the 1970’s. At last count, it had over 20,000 pricing points in it.

From the numbers in the database, there is a crystal clear difference between the pricing for graded packs and non graded packs, specifically from 1970 – 1976 and maybe 1977. Whereas some median prices have gone down, many have increased over the last 12 months and continue to do so.

There are so many variables to pricing, the most reliable way to look at pricing is to look at shifts in the Median Price for a particular item. It is nearly impossible to compare apples to apples in pricing. Here are a few things that need to be taken into account when looking at specific years and specific median prices…

1. The Pack

a. Age
b. Physical Condition of the Pack
c. Scarcity – Real & Perceived
d. Series
e. The Popularity of the sport during the year of issue
f. Amount of cards in a pack
g. The Stars and Money Cards that are in that particular year
h. Stars / Money Cards showing on top or the bottom

2. The Marketplace

a. Reputation of the Seller / Third Party Grading
b. Sense of Urgency – Ability to Purchase
c. Ability to Resell
d. Low sales volumes to review – one high or low sale can skew some results
e. A mini hoard suddenly appears in a major non ebay auction and re-enters the market on ebay and takes a while to be absorbed by the market

3. Personal Traits

a. The Popularity of the Packaging
b. Filling a Collection Need
c. The Lottery Effect – AKA The Pack Ripper trying to pull a high dollar card
d. Personal Interest in the Particular Year
e. Other Intangible Feelings

The data I have suggests some pretty straightforward points:

** Grading has created a bifurcated market, with graded items clearly getting higher prices. Specific grades however do not consistently pull higher prices (for example a 7.5 may sell higher than an 8.5, etc). This suggests that the market generally values authentication more highly than grading.

** Market pricing is fairly complex with quite a few variables as noted above. Movements of median prices will result due to an impact of the aggregate of these variables and generally not just one variable.

I’ll end with this. Did you know that Topps had Revenue of $9.2 M for only BB cards in 1978?

Play with those numbers… I ran a hypothetical model on 1978 Topps production numbers for BB and estimated almost 827 M cards were made in that year. Then I tried to guestimate the form of distribution and came up with 60,000 wax cases, 3,050 wax tray cases and so on… My numbers are clearly only estimates but the point I am trying to make here is that a lot of 1978 unopened BB product was produced 30 years ago. When you think about how much is currently in the market when compared to those numbers, one key thing emerges, the number is tiny and only getting smaller. With a shrinking supply, and a better awareness of the characteristics for unopened items, etc, it would seem that the long term view of the unopened market will be quite favorable.

Pre 1978 Wax Trays…, they just aren’t out there!

Unopened Pack Enthusiast — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 23:23:00 GMT

If you are a Wax Tray Collector, you’re in possession of some very desirable items! Barring a stupendous find of a long lost treasures trove of pre-1978 Wax Trays, there simply aren’t many Trays available. If a hidden hoard does exist, it would definitely be newsworthy since Topps really didn’t produce Trays in large quantities until the late 1970’s. What they did produce have become highly desirable due to both their scarcity as well as the extra layer of security, (provided by the cellophane seal) which offers additional protection against fraudulent wax pack resealers.

Wax Trays were produced for grocery type accounts. Looking only at the 1970’s, most trays displayed similar characteristics; 3 wax packs, cellophane wrapper with either a green or brown (or red in 1980) price logo and a cardboard backboard. Both the cellophane and cardboard backing bore the standard Topps “wrapper coding”.

Green Price Logo

Brown Price Logo

If you were a retailer, you usually located the trays either in the candy aisle or right at the checkout. The consumer would purchase the trays because the tray offered multiple packs at a slightly discounted price. Personally, the slight discount was enough incentive to me to pester my parents to shop at one grocery store as opposed to another, just so I could buy 2-15 cent trays with my allowance.

What Was Produced?

Pre 1970 trays, information or photos are relatively non existent. Trays had been produced going as far back as the late 1950’s. The earliest trays I have at least seen a photo of are: 1957 FB, 1962 BB, 1973 Basketball and 1973 Hockey.


                                                  1969 BB Wax Tray

Focusing purely on the 1970’s, the following is believed to have been produced:

Basketball	Hockey
1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1978/79 It has been suggested that 1976/77, 1977/78 & 1979/80 were produced as well	1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1978/79 1979/80
Baseball & Football	Other Non Sport
1970 – 1979	1978 Superman 1978 Battlestar Galatica

Market Volume

The easiest and most reasonably priced trays to find from the 1970’s are 1978 & 1979 FB & BB. Of the four, the volume of 1978 BB is probably 1/10^th of the other three but cases of all 4 are still generally available.

Looking at the other extreme, 1970-1973 items are virtually non-existent. For the one or two that show up for sale a year, they will generate some very healthy prices.

Which leaves everything else…

· 1979 Hockey, with the Gretzky rookie is very popular but the trays are much scarcer to find, which unfortunately has lead to unscrupulous people trying to take advantage and fraudulently selling resealed items.

· The remaining BB, FB, Hockey and Basketball trays are generally not available in quantities that go above single digits. For the most part, they don’t even go above 2-3 each depending on the year and sport

· There were a couple of non-sport trays produced in 1978, Superman and Battlestar Galatica. Of the two, Battlestar Galatica is much harder to find.

The Tray seems to have phase out in 1980 to be replaced with the “grocery poly sleeve” and ultimately toward the late 1980’s with an extra large, fat cello pack

This article is the first of a three part series. In the next two parts, the focus of the blog post will be on a visual tour and characteristics you would expect to find on 1970’s wax trays.

Unveiling the Unopened Pack Blog

Unopened Pack Enthusiast — Sat, 10 Feb 2007 01:38:00 GMT

Well, here we are finally unveiling The Unopened Pack Blog! I don’t think I would be off base by saying that we all share a love and appreciation of anything Unopened. For some it’s Wax Packs, other Rack Packs, while still others enjoy their Wrappers and it doesn’t stop there!

One thing I have found lacking over the years has been access to reliable information. Simply put, solid archival type information has been tough to come by. Memories have faded, rumors have flown through the market and legends have been created. The end result seems to be a high level of uncertainty within today’s market.

This Blog is intended to share archival and other educational information and create a central repository of such info as it relates to the Unopened Market for Baseball, Football, Hockey and Basketball.

By focusing on wax, cello, and rack packs, along with other related items; cases, ad sell sheets, wrappers, empty boxes and more, this should be a tool to exchange knowledge and expand the market for all of us pack enthusiasts!

Chris

I can still smell the gum…

Unopened Pack Enthusiast — Sat, 10 Feb 2007 00:49:00 GMT

Do you remember what it was like to buy your packs of cards when you were a kid? For a moment I do remember the smell and the powdery taste of the gum Most of all I remember the excitement of a buying a new wax pack or the chance at a pack from a fresh box of cellos... For me, I guess I enjoyed it so much, I still buy packs from the 1970's almost 40 years later.

Back in the day, we had 3 places in the neighborhood that sold packs. They are all gone today. Two were local candy stores which sold wax and sometimes cello packs and the third was a corner "Five and Dime" that sold rack packs. Looking back on it, I doubt any of them ever had more than one box for sale at a time, but it seemed like they had an unlimited supply.

Over time, we found a fourth place that was just outside the neighborhood but also sold cello packs. We would alter our walk home from school just to check and see if they put out a fresh box and see if there were any Yankees, Mets or All Stars showing on top.

As a kid, I absolutely loved rack packs but they were generally too expensive for me. If I had a dollar, I felt like Richie Rich and would usually spend it all on packs of cards. I can clearly remember the feeling of anticipation when you walked into the candy store... you were generally with a friend and you both bought packs. Once we paid, it may have taken 3 seconds to rip open what we purchased. Of course, we would finger through them and provide the verbal commentary for each card - "got, got, need, got, got", etc. Then you inevitably had a craving to buy more. Sometimes we had some loose change and would have enough to pool together for one pack that we split.

Other times, we simply flipped the cards. The way we flipped was to match colors - we used to call no fades or shades, meaning that the colors had to be a dead match. Sometimes when we had a group of kids, we would "scale" the cards against a wall. We would line up about 6 feet from a wall, and then sail or flip a card to a wall. Closest to the wall would win. If you had a fresh pack, you would generally have the upper hand as the cards weren't dinged yet from hitting the floor. I guess this was early exposure into aerodymanics.

One thing was certain, we hid the cards while we at school, otherwise the teachers would take them from us. I had a nun who instituted a "buy back" program after she took the cards from us. If we made a donation to the Little Sisters of the Poor of something like 10 cents, we could get "a stack" back.

I could go on and on... from putting the cards in the spokes of our bicycle tires to leaving your cards in your pockets and having your mom throw them in the wash, but let's here your memories.